NOTE: Okay, before we get into the meat of this story, I need to disclose the fact that I am almost laughably conflicted here in several different ways, and to a degree that, at first, made me not want to publish this piece. Ultimately, I felt the details of the story were too important to ignore, and decided to move forward as transparently as possible. That means sharing my conflicts, explaining why I chose to move forward despite them, and letting you, the reader, judge this all as you see fit.

First, the conflicts: As anyone who reads the Pirate Wires Daily or listens to our pod surely knows, Pirate Wires has a paid partnership with Polymarket, a major subject of this piece (they pay for a callout on the podcast and ads in our daily). 2) Founders Fund, where I work separately from Pirate Wires, is invested in Polymarket. 3) Keaton Inglis, a Kalshi employee and another subject of this piece, interviewed for a job at Pirate Wires just a handful of months ago. I never made him an offer, but he broke the process off himself, which is something I’d want to know if I were reading this piece. Finally 4) though I can’t imagine how this one really matters given the overall thrust of this story, it’s worth noting we worked with Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour on a piece.

Clearly, and again, these are major conflicts. But receipts are receipts, and what follows is the beginning of a story more important, to my eye, than either Polymarket or Kalshi. Because we’re looking at two, incredibly well-funded companies employing a dueling pair of influencer marketing growth strategies, at least one of which — Kalshi’s — has turned several of those influencers, quietly, to framing Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan as a criminal online. What follows is the first, important look at what increasingly appears to be the future of businesses at war in a fragmented media ecosystem dominated by influencers. I’m one of them. Judge this accordingly.